First, Let's Own Our Miss
Previous Prediction: Claude Code would hit 25M downloads by November 8.
Actual Result: 21.9M on November 8 (missed by 3.1M / 12.4%)
What happened: We saw massive spikes Nov 3-7 (1M+ downloads/day), then a sharp drop to 166-263K/day. The acceleration we predicted happened—but wasn't sustainable. Our model didn't account for the volatility in CLI tool adoption patterns.
Lesson learned: Individual tool growth is harder to predict than market-wide trends. Which brings us to our next prediction...
🔮 The New Prediction
The top 5 AI SDKs will hit 100 million combined monthly downloads by December 15, 2025.
A macro bet on the entire AI development market expansion.
()
(14% increase)
(Verification Date)
Why This Prediction Is Different
Instead of betting on a single tool's trajectory, we're betting on the entire market. This approach:
- Smooths volatility: Individual tool spikes and crashes cancel out across 5 tools
- Captures ecosystem growth: Developers adopt multiple SDKs—this measures total activity
- Tests market saturation: If we miss, it signals the AI dev market is slowing down
The Current Leaderboard
| SDK | Monthly Downloads | Weekly Trend | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 31.0M | Stable | 35.4% |
| Claude Code | 21.9M | Volatile (spikes then drops) | 24.9% |
| Vercel AI SDK | 17.0M | Growing (+549K/week) | 19.4% |
| Anthropic SDK | 10.3M | Steady | 11.7% |
| LangChain Core | 7.5M | Slow growth | 8.6% |
| TOTAL | 87.7M | - | 100% |
What Makes This Achievable
1. December Deployment Season
Developers ship before holiday freeze. Historical data shows AI SDK downloads increase 15-20% in early December as teams push year-end features.
2. Multi-Tool Adoption Pattern
74% of projects in our GitHub tracking use 2+ AI SDKs. When one grows, others follow. OpenAI + Anthropic SDK growth drives Vercel AI (which integrates both).
3. Framework Effect
Vercel AI SDK and LangChain are the "sleeper" tools here. They're frameworks that depend on the SDKs above them. As OpenAI/Anthropic grow, these frameworks get pulled up.
4. Diversified Risk
Unlike our single-tool bet on Claude Code, this prediction spreads risk across 5 tools. If one stalls, others can compensate. We need 14% collective growth—each tool only needs to contribute 2-3% individually.
The Math: Can We Get There?
Scenario 1: Proportional Growth (Most Likely)
Each tool grows at its current weekly rate for 5 weeks:
- OpenAI: +3.1M (10% growth)
- Claude Code: +2.8M (stable after volatility)
- Vercel AI: +2.7M (16% growth—fastest grower)
- Anthropic: +1.5M (15% growth)
- LangChain: +1.1M (15% growth)
- Total: +11.2M → 98.9M (MISS by 1.1M)
Scenario 2: December Surge (Needed for 100M)
Each tool accelerates 10% above current trend (reasonable for Dec deployment rush):
- OpenAI: +3.4M
- Claude Code: +3.1M
- Vercel AI: +3.0M
- Anthropic: +1.7M
- LangChain: +1.2M
- Total: +12.4M → 100.1M (HIT)
What Could Stop This?
Four realistic blockers:
- Holiday freeze starts early: Teams lock code by Dec 10 instead of Dec 20
- Major breaking changes: If OpenAI or Anthropic ship breaking API updates, adoption pauses
- Economic slowdown: Tech hiring freezes reduce new developer onboarding
- Market saturation: We've simply converted most active AI developers already
Our assessment: 45-50% probability that we hit 100M by December 15. It's a coin flip—but that's what makes it worth calling.
Why This Prediction Matters
This isn't just about downloads. If the top 5 AI SDKs hit 100M combined, it means:
- The AI dev market is still in hypergrowth (not plateau phase)
- Multi-SDK adoption is standard (developers use 2-3 tools, not just one)
- Framework consolidation is happening (Vercel/LangChain become essential infrastructure)
If we miss, it signals the opposite: market saturation is real, and growth is slowing.
How We'll Verify
No excuses. On December 16, we'll publish:
- Final download counts for all 5 SDKs as of December 15, 11:59 PM UTC
- Exact combined total (hit, miss, or exceed)
- Week-by-week breakdown during the prediction period
- Which tools drove growth (or which lagged)
- What the result signals about the AI development market
The Bottom Line
We missed our Claude Code call. We're not hiding from it.
But that miss taught us something: betting on the market is smarter than betting on individual tools.
So here's our new prediction: The top 5 AI SDKs (OpenAI, Claude Code, Vercel AI, Anthropic, LangChain) will hit 100 million combined monthly downloads by December 15, 2025.
Current: 87.7M. Need: 12.3M more. Time: 35 days.
If we hit it, the AI dev market is still red-hot. If we miss, we're entering the slowdown phase.
See you December 16.
Methodology: Download data sourced from NPM official API. Data collected . Combined totals from: openai (31.0M), @anthropic-ai/claude-code (21.9M), ai/Vercel AI SDK (17.0M), @anthropic-ai/sdk (10.3M), @langchain/core (7.5M). Historical tracking since June 2022.
Data Collection: Vibe Data scrapes NPM, PyPI, GitHub, and Docker Hub daily. Our database tracks 50+ AI development packages. Verification methodology: vibe-data.com