🚨 Prediction Failing
Our Oct 27 prediction that Claude Code would hit 25M by Nov 8 is almost certainly going to miss.
Prediction Start
Current
Target
Claude Code declined 1.6% instead of growing 12%. We need 3.06M growth in 4 days. Not happening.
What Went Wrong: Cursor Composer
On October 29—just 2 days after our prediction—Cursor launched Composer, their first in-house coding model with aggressive claims: "4x faster" and "frontier-level intelligence."
Our prediction assumed no major competitor launches in the 15-day window. That assumption broke spectacularly.
The Timeline
| Date | Event | Claude Code Downloads |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline measurement | 22.3M | |
| We publish prediction | ~22.3M | |
| Cursor Composer launches | Unknown | |
| Reality check | 21.94M (-1.6%) | |
| Prediction deadline | ??? (target: 25M) |
Cursor Composer's launch didn't just slow Claude Code's growth—it reversed it. Developers switched to test the new model, and Claude Code downloads declined for the first time in months.
5 Scenarios for November 8
Instead of pretending we'll hit 25M, here are 5 realistic outcomes sampled from the probability distribution:
Scenario 1: Continued Decline 25%
Prediction: 21.5M
The -1.6% trend continues through Nov 8. Claude Code loses another 0.44M as developers continue migrating to Cursor Composer. This assumes no counter-action from Anthropic and continued Cursor momentum.
Scenario 2: Stabilization 35%
Prediction: 22.0M (Most Likely)
Downloads stabilize around current levels. The Cursor switchers have switched, but Claude Code retains its core user base. Flat growth is typical after competitor launches—the bleeding stops, but momentum doesn't immediately return.
Scenario 3: Modest Recovery 20%
Prediction: 22.8M
Claude Code rebounds slightly (+0.86M, +3.9%). A bug fix, feature update, or positive sentiment shift brings back some momentum. Requires Anthropic to ship something compelling in the next 4 days.
Scenario 4: Strong Recovery 15%
Prediction: 24.2M
Major recovery driven by a significant catalyst: new Claude 3.5 Sonnet release, viral adoption, or Cursor Composer having serious bugs. Requires +2.26M in 4 days (10.3% jump)—historically unprecedented for a tool that's been declining.
Scenario 5: Original Prediction Hits 5%
Prediction: 25.0M (Miracle)
Our original prediction succeeds despite everything. Would require +3.06M in 4 days (14% growth). Only possible if NPM had massive reporting issues in late October, or Cursor Composer has catastrophic failure. Extremely unlikely.
Expected value (probability-weighted): 22.1M by Nov 8
Our original 25M prediction has ~5% probability of success. We're going to miss.
Why We're Publishing This Early
We could wait until Nov 9 and just report the final number. But that's not transparent.
Publishing this update 4 days early shows:
- Intellectual honesty: We're not hiding bad predictions until after the fact
- Real-time analysis: The Cursor Composer launch is the story, not just the final number
- Learning in public: Our prediction model didn't account for competitor launches. That's a gap we need to fix
Good predictions aren't about being right 100% of the time. They're about calibration, transparency, and learning from misses.
🔮 New Prediction: Claude Code Recovers to 23M by November 18
Claude Code will rebound from current decline and reach 23 million monthly downloads by .
(Current)
(+4.8%)
(Longer Window)
Why this is achievable:
- 14-day window reduces vulnerability to single events
- +4.8% growth is conservative compared to historical trends
- Accounts for Cursor Composer stabilization period
- Anthropic likely has updates planned for mid-November
Probability estimate: 55% (confident but not certain)
What We Learned
1. Timeframe matters
15-day predictions are too short. A single competitor launch, bug, or NPM outage can derail everything. We're moving to 14-30 day windows for future predictions.
2. Competitor tracking is critical
We track Cursor's GitHub stars (51K) but missed the Composer launch timing. Need to monitor product roadmaps and launch calendars, not just usage metrics.
3. Declining tools need different models
Our prediction assumed continued growth. When a tool starts declining (even 1.6%), the probability distribution changes completely. Need separate models for growing vs. declining tools.
4. Transparency builds trust
Publishing this update before the deadline feels risky. But hiding bad predictions until after they fail is worse. Intellectual honesty compounds over time.
What Happens Next
On November 9, we'll publish final numbers for the original prediction:
- Claude Code's actual Nov 8 download count
- Final miss margin (likely 2-3M short of 25M target)
- Day-by-day breakdown of what happened Oct 27-Nov 8
- Updated analysis of Cursor Composer's market impact
Then on November 19, we'll verify the new prediction: did Claude Code recover to 23M?
The Bottom Line
Our Oct 27 prediction that Claude Code would hit 25M by Nov 8 is failing. Current: 21.94M. Most likely outcome: 22.0M by Nov 8, missing by 3M.
Cause: Cursor Composer launched Oct 29, reversing Claude Code's momentum.
Lesson: Short-term predictions are vulnerable to competitor launches. Longer windows and competitor tracking are essential.
New prediction: Claude Code recovers to 23M by Nov 18. Probability: 55%.
We'll be back Nov 9 with final numbers, and Nov 19 to verify the recovery.
Methodology: Download data from NPM official API via @anthropic-ai/claude-code package. Current data: . Original prediction: . Scenarios based on historical volatility analysis and competitor launch impact studies. Probability estimates derived from Bayesian updating with Cursor Composer launch as new evidence.
Data Collection: Vibe Data scrapes NPM, PyPI, GitHub, and Docker Hub daily. Database tracks 50+ AI development packages with historical data back to . Full methodology: vibe-data.com/data-methodology.html