Week in Review: AI Development (Oct 24-31, 2025)
This Week's Headlines
- 🚨 Our Claude Code Prediction at Risk - Downloads declined 4.5%, may miss Nov 8 target
- 🏆 GitHub Octoverse: TypeScript overtakes Python (our data validates why)
- 🔍 Cursor Launches Composer - First in-house model, zero public benchmarks
- 💡 Claude's Invisible Dominance - 18.5% dev adoption vs 2.2% traffic (8x gap)
🚨 Prediction Update: Claude Code At Risk
Status: Our Oct 27 prediction that Claude Code would hit 25M monthly downloads by November 8 is now at risk.
| Metric | Baseline (Oct 24) | Current (Oct 31) | Target (Nov 8) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Downloads | 22.3M/month | 21.3M/month | 25.0M/month |
| Week Change | - | -4.5% | +17.4% needed |
| Progress | 89.2% | 85.2% | 100% |
What Happened?
Instead of the predicted growth, Claude Code downloads declined 4.5% this week. This puts the prediction significantly behind schedule with only 8 days remaining.
Why This Matters (Transparency)
This is exactly why we track predictions publicly:
- Accountability - Anyone can make predictions after the fact. We committed publicly to 25M by Nov 8.
- Learning - When predictions fail, we learn what signals we missed.
- Trust - Reporting failures builds more credibility than only highlighting wins.
Possible Explanation: Cursor Composer Launch
The most likely culprit: Cursor launched Composer on October 29 (2 days ago).
Cursor Composer Launch Impact
What happened: Cursor released their first in-house coding model with aggressive marketing:
- "4x faster than comparable models" (250 tokens/second)
- "Frontier-level intelligence"
- Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture
The timing: Oct 29 launch → immediate developer attention → potential Claude Code CLI abandonment for Cursor IDE
Our analysis: Cursor (8,203 repos) vs Claude Code (12,935 repos) in GitHub adoption. Cursor's first proprietary model creates direct competition for AI coding assistant mindshare.
Read our full Cursor Composer analysis →
What's Next?
We'll continue tracking daily through November 8. If the prediction fails, we'll publish a full post-mortem analyzing:
- Which signals we missed
- Why our model didn't account for competitor launches
- How to improve future predictions
Track live prediction status →
🏆 GitHub Octoverse: TypeScript is Now #1
GitHub's Octoverse 2025 dropped major news: TypeScript overtook both Python and JavaScript in August 2025 - "the most significant language shift in more than a decade."
Our Data Validates The Claim
We analyzed NPM and PyPI package downloads to understand why this happened:
AI Package Downloads (Oct 30, 2025)
Python: 414.2M/month
- OpenAI SDK: 124.9M
- Transformers: 94.7M
- LangChain: 83.0M
TypeScript: 76.6M/month
- OpenAI SDK: 31.7M
- Vercel AI SDK: 16.4M (+21% growth)
- Anthropic SDK: 10.5M
Python has 5.4x more downloads than TypeScript.
So why is TypeScript winning contributors?
The Answer: New Projects Choose TypeScript
- Fastest-growing AI frameworks are TypeScript - Vercel AI SDK +21% growth in weeks
- AI coding assistants optimize for TypeScript - 80% of new GitHub devs use Copilot (per GitHub)
- New projects default to TypeScript - Python dominates existing infrastructure, TypeScript wins new apps
Read full TypeScript analysis →
💡 Data Discovery: Claude's Invisible Dominance
This week we made a fascinating discovery analyzing traffic share vs SDK downloads:
Traffic Share vs Developer Adoption Gap
ChatGPT: 72.9% traffic = 72.9% SDK downloads ✅
Perfect alignment - consumer usage mirrors developer building
Gemini: 13.3% traffic vs 8.5% SDK downloads
More direct usage, less developer adoption
Claude: 2.2% traffic vs 18.5% SDK downloads 🤯
8x gap - developers build heavily with Claude, but apps don't send traffic to claude.ai
What This Reveals
Claude dominates developer adoption (#2 at 18.5%) but has minimal consumer traffic (#6 at 2.2%).
This suggests Claude is being embedded invisibly in applications rather than used directly like ChatGPT.
SDK Downloads backing this up:
- OpenAI: 156.6M/month (72.9% market share)
- Anthropic (Claude): 39.8M/month (18.5% market share)
- Google (Gemini): 18.3M/month (8.5% market share)
Perfect correlation between traffic share and SDK adoption - except for Claude's 8x developer preference.
🔍 Cursor Composer: Zero Public Benchmarks
Cursor's Composer launch came with big claims but a critical omission: zero public benchmark scores.
| Model | SWE-bench Verified | Public Data |
|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.5 Sonnet | 70.6% | ✅ Yes |
| GPT-5 | 65.0% | ✅ Yes |
| Cursor Composer | Not published | ❌ No |
Cursor only publishes results from their proprietary "Cursor Bench" - no independent verification available.
Why this matters: Without public benchmarks, claims like "4x faster" and "frontier-level intelligence" cannot be independently validated.
Read full Cursor Composer critique →
📊 By The Numbers: This Week
Top TypeScript AI Packages (Oct 31, 2025)
- OpenAI SDK: 31.7M/month
- Vercel AI SDK: 16.5M/month
- Anthropic SDK: 10.5M/month
- Google Generative AI: 5.2M/month
AI Tool Adoption (GitHub Context Files)
- GitHub Copilot: 21,904 repos
- Claude Code: 12,935 repos
- Cursor IDE: 8,203 repos
- Continue.dev: 1,686 repos
Provider Market Share (SDK Downloads)
- OpenAI: 72.9%
- Anthropic: 18.5%
- Google: 8.5%
🔮 What We're Watching Next Week
- Claude Code Recovery? - Can downloads rebound, or will Cursor Composer impact continue?
- Cursor Composer Adoption - Early GitHub config file tracking, developer sentiment
- TypeScript Momentum - Will Vercel AI SDK maintain +21% growth rate?
- Public Benchmarks - Will Cursor publish SWE-bench scores for Composer?
Methodology & Data Sources
All data in this weekly review comes from:
- NPM Official API - Daily package download tracking
- PyPI Official API - Daily package download tracking
- GitHub Code Search API - Repository context file adoption
- Manual verification - All claims cross-referenced with source data
Data collection dates: October 24-31, 2025
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Sources & Analysis
- Claude Code 25M Prediction (Oct 27, 2025)
- Cursor Composer Launch Analysis (Oct 30, 2025)
- GitHub Octoverse TypeScript Analysis (Oct 30, 2025)
- GitHub Octoverse 2025 Report
- Vibe Data NPM/PyPI Package Tracker (Daily)
- Vibe Data GitHub Context Files Scraper (Weekly)