✓ Prediction: HIT
The top 5 AI SDKs hit 100.97M combined monthly downloads on December 15, 2025.
Target: 100M | Actual: 100.97M | Exceeded by 970,586 downloads
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(Needed 14%)
The Call
On , after missing our Claude Code prediction, we made a different bet: instead of predicting a single tool's growth, we bet on the entire AI SDK market.
Our prediction: The top 5 AI SDKs would hit 100 million combined monthly downloads by December 15, 2025.
Starting point: 87.7M downloads. Target: 100M. Growth needed: 12.3M (14%) in 35 days.
Final result: 100,970,586 downloads. We exceeded the target by 970,586 downloads.
The Final Numbers
| SDK | Nov 10 Baseline | Dec 15 Final | Growth | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 31.0M | 33.9M | +2.9M | +9.4% |
| Claude Code | 21.9M | 23.8M | +1.9M | +8.8% |
| Vercel AI SDK | 17.0M | 21.4M | +4.4M | +25.7% |
| Anthropic SDK | 10.3M | 13.1M | +2.8M | +27.2% |
| LangChain Core | 7.5M | 8.7M | +1.2M | +16.1% |
| TOTAL | 87.7M | 101.0M | +13.2M | +15.1% |
What Drove the Hit
1. December Deployment Rush Was Real
We predicted a 10% acceleration during December deployment season. The market delivered exactly that. Developers shipped AI features before the holiday code freeze, driving SDK downloads across the board.
2. Framework Effect Played Out Perfectly
Vercel AI SDK (+25.7%) and LangChain (+16.1%) were our "sleeper" bets—frameworks that depend on the SDKs above them. As OpenAI and Anthropic grew, these frameworks got pulled up. The prediction was validated.
3. Multi-SDK Adoption Accelerated
Our thesis was that developers use 2-3 AI SDKs, not just one. The data confirms it: Anthropic SDK grew 27.2% while Claude Code grew 8.8%. Developers are adopting the Python SDK alongside the CLI tool, proving multi-SDK usage is now standard.
4. Market Diversification Smoothed Volatility
This is why we bet on 5 tools instead of 1. While Claude Code had volatile growth (8.8%), Vercel AI surged (25.7%) and Anthropic SDK exploded (27.2%). The volatility canceled out across the portfolio—exactly as predicted.
The Biggest Winner: Vercel AI SDK
Vercel AI SDK added 4.4M downloads in 35 days—the largest absolute gain of any SDK. Why?
- Provider-agnostic: Works with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and more. As the market fragments, developers want one SDK that handles all providers.
- Framework integration: Built for Next.js and Vercel deployment. If you're shipping AI features in production, you're probably using Vercel.
- Streaming API: Developers want real-time streaming responses. Vercel AI SDK makes it trivial to implement.
Vercel AI SDK is becoming the default infrastructure layer for AI development. That's a signal worth watching.
What This Result Tells Us About the AI Dev Market
Hitting this prediction wasn't just about downloads. It confirms three major market trends:
1. The AI Dev Market Is Still in Hypergrowth
15.1% growth in 35 days = 157% annualized growth rate. We're not in plateau phase. The AI development market is still accelerating.
2. Multi-SDK Adoption Is Now Standard
Developers don't pick one SDK—they use 2-3. OpenAI for GPT-4, Anthropic for Claude, Vercel AI for production deployment. This is the new normal.
3. Framework Consolidation Is Happening
Vercel AI and LangChain aren't just SDKs—they're becoming essential infrastructure. Developers want abstraction layers that work across all providers. The framework layer is consolidating fast.
Why the Previous Prediction Missed (and This One Hit)
Our Claude Code prediction missed by 3.1M downloads (12.4%). Here's what we learned:
- Individual tools are volatile: Claude Code had 1M+ download days, then dropped to 166K/day. Single-tool predictions are noise-heavy.
- Market bets smooth volatility: Betting on 5 tools diversified the risk. When one lagged, others compensated.
- Macro trends > micro spikes: Market-wide growth is more predictable than individual tool adoption curves.
Lesson: Predict markets, not tools.
What's Next
This result confirms the AI dev market is still red-hot. Here's what we're watching:
- Can Vercel AI hit 30M by January 15? It's on pace for 35%+ monthly growth. If it maintains this trajectory, it could overtake Claude Code.
- Will Anthropic SDK overtake LangChain? Anthropic SDK is growing 27.2% vs. LangChain's 16.1%. At this rate, Anthropic SDK will be #4 by February.
- When does the market hit 150M? At 15% monthly growth, the top 5 SDKs will hit 150M by March 2026. We're watching for signs of saturation.
Track It Live
Watch all AI SDK downloads in real-time on our dashboard. Updated daily.
View Live Data →The Bottom Line
We missed our first prediction. We learned from it. We adjusted our approach.
Result: We nailed the second prediction.
The top 5 AI SDKs hit 100.97M combined monthly downloads on December 15, 2025—exceeding our 100M target.
This isn't just about being right. It's about what the data reveals: The AI development market is still in hypergrowth, multi-SDK adoption is standard, and framework consolidation is accelerating.
We'll keep making predictions. We'll keep tracking the data. And we'll keep publishing the results—hit or miss.
See you for the next call.
Methodology: Download data sourced from NPM official API on . Combined totals from: openai (33.9M), @anthropic-ai/claude-code (23.8M), ai/Vercel AI SDK (21.4M), @anthropic-ai/sdk (13.1M), @langchain/core (8.7M). Historical tracking since June 2022.
Data Collection: Vibe Data scrapes NPM, PyPI, GitHub, and Docker Hub daily. Our database tracks 50+ AI development packages. Verification methodology: vibe-data.com
Prediction Archive: View our original prediction from November 10, 2025 for full methodology and rationale.